Mar 29, 2011

World powers move towards Kadhafi exile plan

03/30 | 02:46 GMT

©AFP / Aris Messinis

President Barack Obama said he did not rule out arming Libyan rebels

LONDON (AFP) - International powers meeting in London edged closer to an exile plan for embattled Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi, as France said it was ready to discuss military aid for rebels.

More than 40 countries and organisations, including the United Nations and NATO, agreed to create a contact group to map out a future for Libya and to meet again as soon as possible in the Arab state of Qatar.

British Foreign Minister William Hague, who chaired the conference, said the delegates "agreed that Kadhafi and his regime have completely lost legitimacy."

The representatives had agreed to continue military action until Kadhafi met all the conditions of the UN resolution authorising a no-fly zone and other measures to protect civilians, he added.

Qatar had also agreed to facilitate the sale of Libyan oil, he said.

The statement made no mention of an exile plan for Kadhafi, but Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini told AFP that the participants had "unanimously" agreed that Kadhafi should leave the country.

"Beyond that, it depends on the country which may offer to welcome Kadhafi," he added.

"There is as yet no formal proposal, no country has formulated such a plan, even the African countries which may be ready to make one."

©AFPTV

VIDEO Kadhafi loyalists stop rebel forces at Ben Jawad Duration:00:55

While Hague said Britain still wanted Kadhafi to face the International Criminal Court, he refused to rule out the possibility of exile, which Spain's foreign minister had also earlier described as a possibility.

"We're not engaged in the United Kingdom in looking for somewhere for him to go, (but) that doesn't exclude others doing so," Hague said.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters that a UN special envoy would visit Tripoli to discuss the option of Kadhafi leaving the country.

British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy called the conference to plot a post-Kadhafi political landscape, as well as to iron out differences over the military mission.

The rebels, seeking to end Kadhafi's 40-year rule, have been emboldened by 10 days of coalition air strikes on the Libyan leader's forces, but have met a barrage of fire halting their march west towards the capital, Tripoli.

They were forced to retreat 40 kilometres (25 miles) Tuesday from their frontline positions to Nofilia, 100 kilometres (60 miles) from Sirte, Kadhafi's birthplace and the rebels' next target as they head west.

Scene:Panic hits Libya's Bin Jawad

Under barrages of artillery fire, rebel fighters stampeded from the scene, many fleeing aboard pickup trucks, halting an advance launched when Britain, France and the United States started UN-mandated air strikes on March 19.

©AFP Graphic / Kt

The rebels have met a barrage of fire halting their march west towards Tripoli

Two loud explosions rocked the Libyan capital Tripoli late Tuesday close to Kadhafi's tightly guarded residence and military targets in the suburb of Tajura were also hit, an AFP correspondent reported.

The first explosion was heard around 1630 GMT, followed by a second some three minutes later in the Bab Al-Azizya district, closely followed by the whine of ambulance sirens.

Seven other explosions were also reported in Tajura, site of several military camps and an almost-nightly target of the air raids.

Tanks and troops loyal to Kadhafi swept through Misrata on Tuesday, firing shells as they attacked Libya's third city, 214 kilometres (132 miles) east of Tripoli, a rebel spokesman said. He warned of a "massacre" ahead.

Rebels have said that Kadhafi forces expelled more than 5,000 families from their homes in the western part of the city.

"Hundreds of families have found refuge in schools and mosques. The situation is very dangerous, very delicate," a rebel spokesman said.

A doctor in the city said 142 people had been killed and 1,400 were wounded since March 18. Rebels said a hospital ship was expected to dock Tuesday in Misrata.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe acknowledged that arming or training the rebels was not covered in the UN Security Council resolutions on Libya.

Related article:'Flickers' of Al-Qaeda in Libya rebel force: NATO

©AFP/Pool / Susan Walsh

Clinton said a UN special envoy would visit Tripoli to discuss the option of Kadhafi leaving

"Having said that, we are prepared to discuss this with our partners," he told reporters.

Clinton and Hague both said, however, that the issue had not been discussed at the talks.

US President Barack Obama, who has staunchly laid out the moral imperative for protecting Libyan civilians caught in the battle, also said he did not rule out arming Libyan rebels as they seek to make territorial gains.

"I'm not ruling it out. But I'm also not ruling it in. We're still making an assessment partly about what Kadhafi's forces are going to be doing," Obama told NBC in an interview.

Cameron and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassem said after the talks they believed Libya could "look forward to a future free from violence, oppression and uncertainty," in an opinion piece for Asharq Al-Awsat, a London based Arabic newspaper.

The pair praised the action of the international community, claiming that the military operation had "saved the city of Benghazi" and "averted a massacre."

Related article:International Libya action breaks records for speed

Libya's main opposition group, the Transitional National Council, issued a statement at the talks in London vowing to work for free and fair elections in a "modern, free and united state".

The group's envoy, Mahmud Jibril, was also in London. While not invited to attend the conference, he met with Clinton, Hague and the foreign ministers of France and Germany on the sidelines.

While NATO finally agreed Sunday to take over full command of military operations in Libya from a US-led coalition, the handover has been put back by 24 hours until Thursday.

©AFP / Carl Court

Libya's main opposition group vowed to work for free and fair elections

While Britain, France and the United States have driven forward the military action on Libya, they have been determined to ensure Arab nations are seen to be supporting their efforts.

Iraq, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar, Tunisia and Morocco were all represented in London.

But the Arab League was only represented at ambassador level and Jean Ping, Chair of the Commission of the African Union, did not attend despite having been announced as among the participants.

Qatar's Jassem, playing down Arab disunity, said the decision to hold the first contact group meeting in Qatar demonstrated "the lead role that Arab countries are playing in bringing an end to this crisis."

Obama not ruling out Libya arms

Click to play

President Obama told ABC News ''if we wanted to get weapons into Libya, we probably could''

He said in an interview that Col Gaddafi had been greatly weakened and would ultimately step down.US President Barack Obama has said he does not rule out arming the rebels seeking to overthrow Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

Pro-Gaddafi forces have driven the rebels back tens of kilometres over ground they took in recent days after coalition air strikes.

The rebels have now retreated eastwards past the town of Ras Lanuf.

News of the rebel withdrawal came as an international conference on Libya in Londonagreed to set up a contact groupinvolving Arab governments to co-ordinate help for a post-Gaddafi Libya.

At least several thousand people have been killed and thousands wounded since the uprising against Col Gaddafi's rule began more than six weeks ago, with the rebels now controlling much of the east and pro-Gaddafi forces holding the capital Tripoli and other western cities.

'Not envisaged'

Asked by US media if he supported arming the rebels, President Obama said: "I'm not ruling it out but I'm also not ruling it in."

“Start Quote

It is our interpretation that [UN Security Council resolution] 1973 amended or overrode the absolute prohibition on arms to anyone in Libya”

Hillary ClintonUS Secretary of State

He confirmed America would supply assistance to opponents of Col Gaddafi in the form of humanitarian aid, medical supplies and communications equipment.

Mr Obama emphasised that the Libyan campaign did not foreshadow military action in Syria or other countries where protests have been violently put down.

He said Libya presented a "unique circumstance" in which a coalition had come together under a UN mandate to "save a lot of lives", and he added that America's military was already overstretched.

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said at the London conference that France and its partners were prepared to discuss arming the rebels but not without the backing of a new UN Security Council resolution.

"I remind you that this is not what is envisaged by Resolution 1973... so for the moment France has agreed to the strict application of these resolutions," he said.

However, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told the conference that although UN sanctions prohibited the delivery of arms to Libya, the ban no longer applied.

"It is our interpretation that [UN Security Council resolution] 1973 amended or overrode the absolute prohibition on arms to anyone in Libya," she said.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague told the BBC that Britain was not planning to give military assistance to rebels "in any form... at the moment".

"Our focus is on trying to protect those civilian areas with the measures that we've been carrying out the last ten days," he added.

Rebel retreat

Forces loyal to Col Gaddafi launched a new offensive on Monday, consolidating their hold on western Libya.

Hundreds of rebels fled in panic from the recently captured town of Bin Jawad and there were also reports of further shelling in the city of Misrata, which government forces are battling to seize back.

The BBC's Nick Springate reports from eastern Libya that the country has seen an incredible reverse for the rebels.

Their retreat is very significant as it shows they have lost the momentum gained after coalition attacks which allowed them to take the towns of Ajdabiya, Brega and Ras Lanuf, our correspondent says.

It also shows the rebels lack supply lines and organisation, he adds.

In the capital, Tripoli, several large explosions were heard close to the Libyan leader's residence.

A senior official close to Col Gaddafi told the BBC that he believed the Libyan government could accept the partition of the country and the division of its oil revenues.

Gaddafi’s forces push back rebels in key city; world leaders call for his ouster

Gallery: Conflict and chaos in Libya: As international airstrikes continue against forces loyal to Moammar Gaddafi, rebel fighters push forward.

TRIPOLI, Libya — Rebel fighters fled under fire from a key town in eastern Libya on Tuesday as world leaders convening in London insisted that Moammar Gaddafi step down but offered no new suggestions for how to dislodge him from power.By Liz Sly and Joby Warrick, Tuesday, March 29, 9:11 PM

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is imploring the world to speak with a single voice to Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi and tell him to leave power. (March 29)

Video: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is imploring the world to speak with a single voice to Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi and tell him to leave power. (March 29)

Featured Comment

"Libya, a nation with a population less than that of Tennessee, is this administration's war... If planes from three powerful military nations bombed Tennessee, they could force the state to do anything they wanted."

bbwk80

Join The Discussion

Map: Tracking events in Libya

See the latest

The rebels’ chaotic retreat from the town of Bin Jawwad, which they had captured from troops loyal to Gaddafi just two days earlier, reversed the momentum they had seized over the weekend and suggested that the ad hoc and lightly armed opposition force may have reached the limits of its capacity.

It was the fourth time Bin Jawwad has changed hands in less than three weeks, raising the specter of a prolonged stalemate along the sparsely populated stretch of coastal highway between the rebel stronghold of Benghazi to the east and Gaddafi’s heavily garrisoned home town of Sirte to the west.

Although the 40 world leaders meeting in London pledged humanitarian aid and continued airstrikes to protect civilians, they indicated that it would be up to the Libyans themselves to force Gaddafi out, leaving it unclear how they were supposed to do so.

The question of whether to arm the rebels was not publicly discussed, nor was the question of how to release frozen Libyan assets to help fund them. But the leaders attending the conference made it clear that the military campaign in Libya would not end until Gaddafi had gone.

“Gaddafi has lost the legitimacy to lead, so we believe he must go. We’re working with the international community to try to achieve that outcome,” U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told reporters after the talks, indicating that the United States is pinning its hopes on defections from those around Gaddafi.

President Obama said Tuesday that he would not preclude the possibility of arming the rebels. Pressed on the issue in an interview with NBC News, Obama said, “I’m not ruling it out, but I’m also not ruling it in.”

“We are still making an assessment about what Gaddafi’s forces are doing,” the president said.

In a series of interviews with the three major television networks, Obama emphasized that his decision to deploy U.S. forces in Libya should not be applied to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. He told NBC that his policy on Libya should not be construed as an “Obama doctrine” that can be applied in a “cookie-cutter fashion.”

The strongest challenge to Gaddafi in London came from the prime minister and foreign minister of Qatar, a nation that has been the most forthright Arab supporter of the Western-led military campaign in Libya. Hamad Bin Jasim al-Thani, the prime minister, warned “Gaddafi and his people to leave and not cause any more bloodshed.”

“Right now, we don’t see any indication of that,” he said. “But this hope which we offer now might not be on the table after a few days. I am not warning anybody here, but I’m trying to stop the bloodshed as soon as possible.”

“We have prevented a potential massacre, established a no-fly zone, stopped an advancing army, added more partners to this coalition and transferred command of the military effort to NATO,” Clinton said. “That’s not bad for a week of work at a time of great, intense international concern.”Clinton and other leaders reiterated their conviction that the military campaign in Libya has saved lives by reversing the advance of Gaddafi forces toward Benghazi.

Gaddafi has not been seen or heard from publicly in a week, but with his forces advancing east on the 11th day of airstrikes, noimmediate pressure appeared on his government to abandon him.

Bin Jawwad, 90 miles east of Sirte, marked the farthest point of the rebel advance the last time they swept west through government lines a little over three weeks ago. The retreat Tuesday suggested that the rebels will have a difficult time taking and holding territory in Gaddafi’s loyalist heartland.

News footage showed images of panicked rebels leaping into cars and pickup trucks and scrambling to leave Bin Jawwad as approaching Gaddafi forces pounded them with mortar shells and artillery fire. There were no reports of coalition airstrikes as the rebels withdrew.

The rebels retreated 37 miles east to Ras Lanuf, the oil refinery town they had retaken from Gaddafi earlier this month as the momentum in the war seemed to swing in their favor. Yet even there, their hold seemed tenuous. Reports late Tuesday said the town was coming under heavy artillery fire from advancing Gaddafi troops.

There were also reports from the besieged town of Misurata that Libyan forces had launched a fresh onslaught of attacks, pounding civilian areas with mortar and artillery fire. Four brothers were killed, according to a physician at a rebel-controlled hospital. In Tripoli, airstrikes occurred for the first time in daylight, with three loud explosions shaking the capital at 5:30 p.m.

As news of the rebels’ retreat reached Benghazi, the mood was somber. Rebel spokeswoman Iman Bugaighis described the action as a “tactical withdrawal” designed to take rebel forces “out of the range of Col. Gaddafi’s militia and mercenary troops.”

Rebel officials nonetheless said they welcomed the London conference for the increased diplomatic recognition it appeared to afford their self-styled government, the Transitional National Council.

“We don’t have arms,” said Guma El-Gamaty, British co-coordinator for the council, who added that he would welcome offers to provide weapons to the rebels. “But we ask for political support more than we ask for arms.”

Clinton, like Obama, did not discount the possibility of arming the rebels. She said she thought such a step would be legal under the terms of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorized the use of force to protect the lives of Libyan civilians. But British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the subject had not been raised.

U.S. and European leaders met with leaders of the rebel council and set up a multinational Libyan contact group to coordinate political strategy in the weeks ahead.

slyl@washpost.com

warrickj@washpost.com

Warrick reported from London. Staff writers Tara Bahrampour in Benghazi, Libya, and Perry Bacon Jr. in Washington contributed to this report.

US and Britain may arm Libya rebels if Gaddafi clings to power Hillary Clinton and William Hague claim arming rebel groups may be legal under the recent UN resolution

At a conference on Libya's future in London, Hillary Clinton raised the possibility of arming the rebels against Gaddafi.

The US and Britain have raised the prospect of arming Libya's rebels if air strikes fail to force Muammar Gaddafi from power.

At the end of a conference on Libya in London, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, said for the first time that she believed arming rebel groups was legal under UN security council resolution 1973, passed two weeks ago, which also provided the legal justification for air strikes.

The British foreign secretary, William Hague, agreed that the resolution made it legal "to give people aid in order to defend themselves in particular circumstances".

But Clinton admitted the Americans "do not know as much as we would like to" about the interim national council (INC). In Washington, Admiral James Stavridis, Nato's supreme allied commander in Europe, told the Senate that intelligence analysis had revealed "flickers" of al-Qaida or Hezbollah presence inside the movement, and argued it required further study.

America's envoy to the UN, Susan Rice, told Fox News she was "reading much the same stuff" and distanced herself from Stavridis's comments. "I think we can't rule out the possibility that extremist elements could filter into any segment of Libyan society and it's something clearly we will watch carefully for," she said.

The west's main Arab ally, Qatar, also said providing weapons to Gaddafi's opponents should be considered if air strikes failed to dislodge him. The Gulf state's prime minister, Sheikh Hamad bin Jaber al-Thani, said the effect of air strikes would have to be evaluated in a few days, but added: "We cannot let the people suffer for too long."

A prolonged conflict appeared more likely after pro-Gaddafi forces launched a powerful counterattack against Libyan rebelstoday, sending the revolutionaries fleeing from towns they had taken only two days earlier.

Mahmoud Shammam, a spokesman for the INC said the opposition lacked weapons. "We don't have arms at all, otherwise we would finish Gaddafi in a few days. We ask for the political support more than we are asking for the arms. But if we get both that would be great."

However, international law experts have warned that the US is likely to be in breach of the UN security council's arms embargo on Libya if it sends weapons to the rebels. Lawyers analysing the UN's 26 February arms embargo said it would require a change in the terms for such a move not to breach international law.

"The embargo appears to cover everybody in the conflict, which means you can't supply arms to rebels," said Philippe Sands QC, professor of international law at University College London.

The French and Italians have also disagreed with Washington and London's interpretation of the UN resolution.

Asked about the possibility of arming the rebels, the French foreign minister, Alain Juppé, said: "I remind you it is not part of the UN resolution – which France sticks to – but we are ready to discuss it with our partners."

French and Italian officials said the issue had been discussed at the conference in London, contradicting US and British assurances to the contrary.

There appeared to be greater consensus on offering Gaddafi a way out of the conflict through exile, with Italy leading the way in seeking a haven prepared to accept the Libyan leader. The UK was not looking for somewhere for him to go, said Hague. "That doesn't exclude other countries from doing so."

Barack Obama said in television interviews on Tuesday he thought it was too early to negotiate an exit for Gaddafi. He told CBS News Gaddafi's inner circle was beginning to recognise that "their days are numbered". He said some may be negotiating to leave the regime. "But that information may not have filtered to Gaddafi yet."

Clinton said the UN's special envoy to Libya, Abdul Ilah Khatib, was due in Tripoli soon to explore "a political solution that could involve [Gaddafi] leaving the country".

The INC was not formally invited to the London conference, and has only been recognised so far by France and Qatar. However, it emerged from the conference with its status enhanced.

The group launched its political manifesto, A Vision of a Democratic Libya, from the Foreign Office's official briefing room. Shammam said Clinton herself had "just stopped short of recognition", but she had dispatched a senior US diplomat, Chris Stevens, to Benghazi to strengthen ties.

"We have been told here that a lot more delegates will be coming to Benghazi soon," said the INC spokesman.

The conference agreed to study a Qatari proposal to sell oil from opposition-held areas of Libya, to provide revenue for the insurgents.

Pro-Gaddafi forces bolstered by recent reinforcements bombarded rebel positions in Bin Jawad, 45 miles from the politically and strategically significant town of Sirte on the Libyan coast.

Revolutionaries around Bin Jawad eventually fled under the intense assault.

The government army moved into the town and then pressed east for 20 miles to within striking distance of Ras Lanuf, which was left dangerously vulnerable. Towns on the road to Benghazi have changed hands several times since the beginning of the uprising two months ago.

The rebels' see-sawing military fortunes, which saw them charge down the road to Bin Jawad on Sunday after western air strikes sent Gaddafi's forces fleeing only to charge back up again yesterday, is further confirmation that they are unlikely to be able to defeat the regime without foreign air forces continuing to destroy government tanks and artillery.

It was not immediately clear if there had been any air strikes near Sirte or Bin Jawad on Monday, but the advance of the regime's forces did not appear to have been slowed.

Rebel fighters demanded to know if Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, who is a favourite of the revolutionaries after his government recognised them, was sleeping.

Julian Borger and Chris McGreal in Benghazi
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 29 March 2011 21.30 BST
Article history

Washington in Fierce Debate on Arming Libyan Rebels

Anja Niedringhaus/Associated Press

A Libyan rebel urged people to leave as government forces shelled an area near Bin Jawad in northern Libya on Tuesday.

This article is by Mark Landler, Elisabeth Bumiller and Steven Lee Myers.

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is engaged in a fierce debate over whether to supply weapons to the rebels in Libya, senior officials said on Tuesday, with some fearful that providing arms would deepen American involvement in a civil war and that some fighters may have links to Al Qaeda.

1 of 6

The Libyan Rebellion

Interactive map of the major clashes in Libya, day by day.

Pool photo by Stefan Rousseau

Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, left, listened to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in London on Tuesday.

The debate has drawn in the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, these officials said, and has prompted an urgent call for intelligence about a ragtag band of rebels who are waging a town-by-town battle against Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, from a base in eastern Libya long suspected of supplying terrorist recruits.

“Al Qaeda in that part of the country is obviously an issue,” a senior official said.

On a day when Libyan forces counterattacked, fears about the rebels surfaced publicly on Capitol Hill on Tuesday when the military commander of NATO, Adm. James G. Stavridis, told a Senate hearing that there were “flickers” in intelligence reports about the presence of Qaeda andHezbollah members among the anti-Qaddafi forces. No full picture of the opposition has emerged, Admiral Stavridis said. While eastern Libya was the center of Islamist protests in the late 1990s, it is unclear how many groups retain ties to Al Qaeda.

The French government, which has led the international charge against Colonel Qaddafi, has placed mounting pressure on the United States to provide greater assistance to the rebels. The question of how best to support the opposition dominated an international conference about Libya on Tuesday in London.

While Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the administration had not yet decided whether to actually transfer arms, she reiterated that the United States had a right to do so, despite an arms embargo on Libya, because of the United Nations Security Council’s broad resolution authorizing military action to protect civilians.

In a reflection of the seriousness of the administration’s debate, Mr. Obama said Tuesday that he was keeping his options open on arming the rebels. “I’m not ruling it out, but I’m also not ruling it in,” Mr. Obama told NBC News. “We’re still making an assessment partly about what Qaddafi’s forces are going to be doing. Keep in mind, we’ve been at this now for nine days.”

But some administration officials argue that supplying arms would further entangle the United States in a drawn-out civil war because the rebels would need to be trained to use any weapons, even relatively simple rifles and shoulder-fired anti-armor weapons. This could mean sending trainers. One official said the United States might simply let others supply the weapons.

The question of whether to arm the rebels underscores the difficult choices the United States faces as it tries to move from being the leader of the military operation to a member of a NATO-led coalition, with no clear political endgame. It also carries echoes of previous American efforts to arm rebels, in Angola, Nicaragua, Afghanistan and elsewhere, many of which backfired. The United States has a deep, often unsuccessful, history of arming insurgencies.

Mr. Obama pledged on Monday that he would not commit American ground troops to Libya and said that the job of transforming the country into a democracy was primarily for the Libyan people and the international community. But he promised that the United States would help the rebels in this struggle.

In London, Mrs. Clinton and other Western leaders made it clear that the NATO-led operation would end only with the removal of Colonel Qaddafi, even if that was not the stated goal of the United Nations resolution.

Mrs. Clinton — who met for a second time with a senior opposition leader, Mahmoud Jibril — acknowledged that as a group, the rebels were largely a mystery. “We don’t know as much as we would like to know and as much as we expect we will know,” she said at a news conference.

In his testimony, Admiral Stavridis said, “We are examining very closely the content, composition, the personalities, who are the leaders of these opposition forces.”

The coalition members discussed other ways to help the rebels, like humanitarian aid and money, Mrs. Clinton said. Some of the more than $30 billion in frozen Libyan funds may be channeled to the opposition.

But a spokesman for the rebels, Mahmoud Shammam, said they would welcome arms, contending that with weaponry they would already have defeated Colonel Qaddafi’s forces. “We ask for political support more than arms,” Mr. Shammam said, “but if we have both, that would be good.”

So far, the rebels have obtained arms from defecting Qaddafi loyalists, as well as from abandoned ammunitions depots.

A European diplomat said France was adamant that the rebels be more heavily armed and was in discussions with the Obama administration about how France would bring this about. “We strongly believe that it should happen,” said the diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat and chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said he had had conversations with two senior administration officials about this issue. Mr. Levin said he was most concerned about how the rebels would use the weapons after a cease-fire. “Would they stop fighting if they had momentum, or would they be continuing to use those weapons?” he asked.

Gene A. Cretz, the American ambassador to Libya, said last week that he was impressed by the democratic instincts of the opposition leaders and that he did not believe that they were dominated by extremists. But he acknowledged that there was no way to know if they were “100 percent kosher, so to speak.”

Bruce O. Riedel, a former C.I.A. analyst and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said some who had fought as insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan were bound to have returned home to Libya. “The question we can’t answer is, Are they 2 percent of the opposition? Are they 20 percent? Or are they 80 percent?” he said.

Even if the administration resolves these concerns, military officials said it was unclear to them how an effort to arm the rebels would be carried out.

They said the arms most likely to be of use were relatively light and simple shoulder-fired anti-armor weapons for defense against tanks, as well as rifles like Soviet AK-47s and communications equipment. Although these weapons are not especially sophisticated, months, if not years, of on-the-ground training would still be necessary.

Even with training, anti-armor weapons and rifles would allow the rebels only to consolidate their gains and hold the territory they have, said Nathan Freier, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

One crucial voice, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has experience in the unintended consequences of arming rebels: As a C.I.A. official in the late 1980s, he funneled weapons to the Islamic fundamentalists who ousted the Soviets from Kabul. Some later became theTaliban fighting the United States in Afghanistan.

Mark Landler and Elisabeth Bumiller reported from Washington, and Steven Lee Myers from London.

NEWS