Apr 26, 2011

NEW YORK | Tue Apr 26, 2011 5:58pm EDT
(Reuters) - Brent crude edged up in volatile trading while U.S. crude ended little changed on Tuesday as investors eyed a U.S. Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting for any signal of a change in monetary policy.
The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on expectations that the Fed will keep monetary policy accommodative, helping support dollar-denominated oil prices that have benefited by attracting investment as a hedge against inflation.
Comments by the chief of Saudi Arabia's state-run company Aramco, who voiced concern about the impact of high oil prices on the global economy, pressured crude early on Tuesday.
The Saudi view contrasted with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's remarks that oil, "at current levels, on its own, it won't put the recovery at risk.
A power outage affected operations at several refiners in Texas City, Texas, lifting U.S. gasoline and heating oil futures and supporting crude.
Brent crude for June gained 48 cents to settle at $124.14 a barrel, having bounced off a $122.78 low.
U.S. crude for June fell 7 cents settle at $112.21.
Tuesday's trading saw U.S. crude seesaw between a $111.12 low and a $112.64 peak. It reached $113.48 on Monday, its highest intraday price since September 2008, before ending the day down 1 penny.
Libya's civil war and violence-tinged unrest Syria and Yemen helped limit bearish sentiment or a price slide, keeping the potential for supply disruption in the region highlighted.
Tensions between Bahrain and Tehran escalated as Bahrain ordered the expulsion of an Iranian diplomat for alleged links to a spy ring in Kuwait.
Oil's rallies have been fueled recently by geopolitical supply worries and expectations the dollar will stay under pressure, but price pull backs have resulted from increasing concerns about the threat to oil demand from high prices.
Analysts and brokers said investors would be cautious awaiting the result of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee meeting that started on Tuesday and will include a news conference on Wednesday.
"This week, it will be all about the Fed meeting. Volume and volatility will come back after the meeting," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland.
Both U.S. and Brent crude trading volumes outpaced Monday's depressed totals, but they remained on track to continue to lag 30- and 250-day averages, according to Reuters data.
DOLLAR UNDER PRESSURE
The euro jumped to a 16-month high against the dollar, with no respite seen for the greenback as long as the Fed lags other major central banks in raising interest rates.
The dollar index .DXY, measuring the greenback against a basket of currencies, weakened.
"Exchange rates and lack of confidence in the currency have been supportive to oil. The market is going to be cautious and wait to see if the Fed and (Chairman) Bernanke address rising energy prices and inflation," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
U.S. OIL INVENTORIES
U.S. crude stocks jumped 4.9 million barrels last week as imports increased, the industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) said late on Tuesday.
Gasoline stocks fell 2.1 million barrels and distillate inventories rose 1.5 million barrels, the API report said.
Ahead of the API report, a Reuters poll on Tuesday yielded a forecast for crude stocks to be up only 800,000 barrels.
Gasoline stocks were expected to be down 1.1 million barrels and distillate stocks nearly unchanged, up only 100,000 barrels.
After the API data, U.S. crude prices fell further and Brent pared gains slightly in post-settlement trading.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly report is due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).
U.S. retail gasoline demand fell last week from the previous week, but rebounded modestly versus the year-ago period, a MasterCard Advisors' report showed.
The index that tracks tonnage hauled by trucks in the United States rose in March, but higher fuel prices threaten the growth, the American Trucking Associations trade group said.
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York, Ikuko Kurahone in London and Manash Goswami and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)

Silver down 5 percent

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iShares Silver Trust
SLV.P
$44.02
-1.81-3.95%
3:00am GMT+0700
A worker stores ingots of 99.99 percent pure silver, which weigh 30 kilos (66 lbs), to pack them at the Krastsvetmet nonferrous metals plant in Russia's Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, March 28, 2011. REUTERS/Ilya Naymushin
NEW YORK | Tue Apr 26, 2011 4:27pm EDT
(Reuters) - Silver posted its largest one-day fall in six weeks on Tuesday after having hit a 31-year high in the previous session, while gold was pressured by investor uncertainty over the likely course of U.S. monetary policy.
Spot silver fell by as much as 4.9 percent to a session low of $44.62 an ounce, after having risen to $49.31 on Monday, its highest since touching $49.48 in January 1980.
High volatility and the expiry of U.S. silver options added to the intensity of the decline, impacting gold, which fell back from Monday's record of $1,518.10 an ounce ahead of the outcome of the two-day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday.
The Fed is expected to indicate that it is in no hurry to raise interest rates, while Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver the first regularly scheduled post-decision news briefing in the bank's 97-year history.
"We are seeing investors taking profits on the metal after this incredible run-up which was fueled largely by speculators," said TD Ameritrade chief derivatives strategist Joe Kinahan.
"We often see this case in commodities where speculators will come in a bit late to the party looking for the trend to continue to be their friend," he said. "But the problem here is that silver was nearing all-time highs this week."
Silver finished down at $44.98 an ounce at 3:20 p.m. EDT (1920 GMT), compared with $46.90 late in New York on Monday, set for its biggest daily percentage loss since March 15.
Silver at-the-money implied options volatility has risen by over 35 percent in the last four trading days to hit its highest level since mid-November.
U.S. silver futures saw record volume on Monday, with over 300,000 lots changing hands, with another 170,000 trading by 3:20 p.m. on Tuesday.
Silver futures for May finished down at $45.05, having closed at $47.149 on Monday.
The iShares Silver Trust (SLV.P), the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, also saw heavy trading, with a record 34.93 million shares trading on Monday and a further 20 million shares changing hands before 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday.
"Everyone has heard that silver is in a parabolic uptrend, but it now appears ready to take at least a respite to calm down a bit," wrote Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp, in a report.
Gold posted its second daily decline, in spite of the weakness in the dollar, which usually acts as an incentive to non-U.S. investors to buy the metal.
The spot price was last down 0.4 percent at $1,502.40 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery finished down 0.4 percent at $1,503.50, trading between $1,492.00 and $1,508.50 during the session.
DOLLAR LINK WEAKENS
However, gold's usual inverse relation to the dollar has been weakening consistently since mid-April, meaning the bullion price will derive less of a bounce from any softness in the U.S. currency.
The dollar fell to a 16-month low against the euro on expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain accommodative compared to the European Central Bank, which has already begun to raise rates.
Tighter U.S. policy would restrict the amount of cash in the financial system and could temper concern about inflation, which investors often protect against by buying gold.
The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to confirm it will stick to plans to complete its $600 billion bond-buying program.
Traders say part of the reason for the volatility in gold and silver prices is activity related to options -- contracts which give holders the right to buy or sell the underlying security at a fixed price in the futures.
"There's been a rush to cover exposure to these contracts ahead of expiry," a trader said. "It's been more pronounced in silver futures."
Silver prices are still up about 50 percent so far this year after gains of more than 80 percent last year.
Platinum was last at $1,803.48 an ounce, down from Monday's last quote at $1,819.30, while palladium traded at $755.00 an ounce versus $757.80 on Monday.
(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago, Amanda Cooper and Pratima Desai in London; editing by Alden Bentley and Marguerita Choy)

Dollar hits 3-year low before Fed, Asia stocks up

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Ford Motor Co
F.N
$15.66
+0.12+0.77%
04/26/2011
 
3M Co
MMM.N
$95.94
+1.82+1.93%
04/26/2011
 
United Parcel Service Inc
UPS.N
$74.30
+0.66+0.90%
04/26/2011

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A U.S. dollar note (bottom) is pictured alongside other currencies including (L-R) the Australian Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Korean Won and China's Yuan in this picture illustration taken in Washington, October 14, 2010. REUTERS/Jason Reed
HONG KONG | Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:18pm EDT
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar plumbed a near 3-year low against other major currencies on Wednesday before a Federal Reserve decision where it is expected to reinforce its ultra-easy policy stance while stocks in Asia's developed markets rose, tracking a strong close on Wall Street.
Market players added bearish dollar bets, especially against the euro and the Swiss Franc on expectations the Fed will cling to a near-zero interest rate policy even as it lets a $600 billion bond purchase program wind down in June.
"Focus will be on the inaugural press conference and whether Bernanke is shifting along the dove-hawk scale," said Michael Sneyd, analyst at Societe Generale.
"Attention will also be on comments for how the Fed may respond to U.S. fiscal tightening. All-in-all, the meeting is likely to give the green light for risk appetite and for dollar bears to continue to be bearish."
The dollar index .DXY, which tracks its performance against a basket of major currencies, hit the lowest since August 2008 at 73.483, before cutting some losses in early Asian trading.
Shares rose, taking a leaf from the robust gains posted by U.S. indices overnight, which was helped by better than expected performances from Ford Motor Co (F.N), 3M Co (MMM.N) and United Parcel Services Inc (UPS.N). .N
Japan's Nikkei .N225 was up more than a percent while Australia's benchmark index .AXJO rose after a five-day holiday weekend. MSCI's index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS hovered just below a three-year peak hit last week.
U.S. Treasury yields edged up after recent drops with the 10-year yield just above a one-month low of 3.32 percent before the Fed decision.
In commodity markets, spot silver paused around the $46 per ounce level after falling by nearly 5 percent overnight.
High volatility and the expiry of U.S. silver options added to the intensity of the decline of the precious metal which nearly doubled in value between the January lows and Monday's peak.
Despite the sharp pullback in silver which rippled over into other commodities, U.S. crude held above the $124 per barrel line, rising from recent lows, as Libya's civil war and violence-tinged unrest Syria and Yemen helped limit bearish sentiment on a price slide.