Mar 31, 2011

Libyan defector Musa Kusa expected to offer insider’s insights into Gaddafi regime

Gallery: Conflict and chaos in Libya: As international airstrikes continue against forces loyal to Moammar Gaddafi, rebels face difficult battle.
TRIPOLI, Libya — U.S. and British officials hailed the defection of Libyan Foreign Minister Musa Kusa as evidence that the regime of Moammar Gaddafi is crumbling, as rumors swirled around the Libyan capital Thursday that as many as 15 top regime officials had fled to Tunisia and were seeking refuge in the West.
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Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi's forces may have an advantage over rebel fighters, but cracks are widening inside his government, with several defections of its diplomats. (March 31)
Video: Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi's forces may have an advantage over rebel fighters, but cracks are widening inside his government, with several defections of its diplomats. (March 31)
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Follow how events are unfolding in Libya.
Graphic: Follow how events are unfolding in Libya.
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But with Gaddafi’s forces making renewed advances against rebels in the east and no indication that his grip on the vast areas of the country under his control is slipping, it was unclear whether Kusa’s departure would have an immediate effect on the balance of power on the ground or trigger the mass defections that U.S. officials said they were hoping for.
As a longtime Libyan insider, Kusa is the most senior official to abandon Gaddafi since the popular uprising began in February. Analysts and officials said he is likely to provide NATO officials with valuable intelligence on the effects of the bombing campaign against Libyan forces as well as psychological insights into the morale of Gaddafi and his inner circle, which could be used to persuade other government officials to quit.
A second top Foreign Ministry official, Ali Abdel Salam al-Treki, reportedly announced his defection Thursday in a statement faxed to news agencies by his nephew. Treki was a former deputy foreign minister and had recently been named Libya’s representative to the United Nations.
The names of other putative defectors circulated throughout the day, with the prime minister, the oil minister, the head of Libya’s supreme legislative body — the People’s General Congress — and the chief of external intelligence among those variously reported to be waiting at an airport in Tunisia or in Tunis hotels for flights to London.
But the oil minister told the Reuters news agency by telephone that he was in his office in Tripoli, and there was no confirmation that any other officials had quit.
U.S. and British officials hailed Kusa’s surprise appearance in London on Wednesday and appealed to other Libyan officials to follow suit.
“If there was ever a sign that the inner circle of the regime is crumbling, it was the defection yesterday of Musa Kusa,” said White House spokesman Jay Carney.
British Prime Minister David Cameron called Kusa’s defection “a serious blow to Gaddafi’s authority.”
British officials said Kusa was cooperating voluntarily even though he had been given no promises of immunity from prosecution for crimes he is suspected to have committed during the decades he served as Libya’s intelligence chief and as one of Gaddafi’s most trusted confidants.
But with Libya on a war footing as battles rage between rebel fighters and government forces in the east, the resignation of the country’s top diplomat may have no immediate effect. In eastern Libya, rebel leaders said they hoped Kusa would be brought to trial for his role in oppressing Libyans.
“Effective government is on hold, and Gaddafi is really governing on a crisis basis with his sons around him,” said David Hartwell, Middle East and North Africa analyst for the defense analysis group IHS Jane’s. “While it’s very embarrassing for Gaddafi and will likely make him very distrustful of those around him, on the ground, he’s enjoying military success, so it’s a mixed blessing.”
Kusa’s real value will come in the form of the insights he offers into the workings of the regime, the leadership’s state of mind, Gaddafi’s plans and who around him may be wavering, Hartwell said.
Kusa is also likely to possess important information about many of the atrocities committed by the regime in the years before Gaddafi, with Kusa’s help, engineered his rapprochement with the West in 2003.
Scottish prosecutors sought Thursday to question Kusa over his alleged role in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, which killed 270 people, most of them Americans.
The Libyan government sought to play down Kusa’s defection, describing his decision as a personal one.
“Colonel Gaddafi is surrounded by many, many people who admire him and are prepared to work under his leadership,” said government spokesman Moussa Ibrahim. “People are saying, so what if someone wants to step down. It’s his personal decision. The fight continues. We are ready to talk, ready for peace, but we are ready also to fight.”
But Ibrahim acknowledged that the defection, which came after Kusa requested leave to receive medical treatment in Tunisia, caught the government by surprise.
“We do believe Mr. Musa Kusa is genuinely tired, physically, emotionally and mentally due to his age,” the spokesman said. “He did not notify us of his intention. We hope he recovers . . . and if he feels better, we welcome him with open arms.”
The Libyan news agency JANA issued a brief statement from Gaddafi late Thursday condemning the NATO-led bombing campaign and calling on world leaders to quit, but it gave no indication of where the statement was issued or where Gaddafi is. He has not been seen or heard from since March 23, though Libyan officials insist he is still living in his compound in Tripoli.
slyl@washpost.com
Adam, a special correspondent, reported from London.

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