3 reasons there may not be a government shutdown
It would seem that all the pieces are in place for a government shutdown: deep differences over money and policy, rank-and-file lawmakers agitating for it, and a dwindling timetable.
The missing ingredients? A president, a House speaker and a Senate majority leader who actually want it.
Continue ReadingThe three figures at the center of the spending impasse – Barack Obama, John Boehner and Harry Reid – aren’t the chest-pounding types, a la Newt Gingrich in 1995, or the kind to gamble on a big political pay-off, a la Bill Clinton.
They are low-key political operators, each harboring a legitimate self-interest to avert a shutdown. They can’t be absolutely, positively certain the other guy will get the blame if it happens. And that simple political fact might be the one thing left that can head off a prolonged shutdown.
“There is nothing in Boehner’s or Obama’s history that suggests this is something that they enjoy,” said James Carville, a Democratic strategist. “Reid enjoys a little tussle, but he’s not a Gingrich.”
They’ve had their differences, to be sure. Democrats are frustrated with Boehner for what they view as his “moving the goal posts” to appease tea-party conservatives. Boehner felt burned when the White House and Senate Democrats leaked last week that all sides had agreed to $33 billion in budget cuts.
They’ve had their differences, to be sure. Democrats are frustrated with Boehner for what they view as his “moving the goal posts” to appease tea-party conservatives. Boehner felt burned when the White House and Senate Democrats leaked last week that all sides had agreed to $33 billion in budget cuts.
And it may simply be too late to reverse the momentum that has been building toward a shutdown. Boehner still contends with a caucus eager to show it’s serious about slashing the budget, Reid can’t keep going back to his members with an objectionable roster of cuts, and Obama wants to avoid giving away the store to Republicans.
The three emerged from a late-night meeting at the White House Wednesday claiming serious progress, but no deal, even though they’re only several billion dollars apart, chicken-feed in Washington terms.
In an extraordinary sight for partisan Washington, Reid and Boehner addressed reporters together after the two-hour meeting, sending a symbolic message that they remain partners, however reluctant, in breaking the impasse.
Obama, the former law professor who prefers conciliation over confrontation, theoretically has a lot to gain politically from a shutdown, but much to lose.
It may not only threaten the country’s fragile recovery – which Obama needs to keep pace if he wants a second term – it could damage attempts to revitalize his own political brand, as the grown-up trying to bring order to a dysfunctional town.
Obama has never shown patience for the Washington dance. The term “petty politics” draws more than 40 hits in the WhiteHouse.gov search engine, a favorite Obama phrase dropped in a Labor Day address, immigration and health care speeches, town hall appearances, and news conferences. On Wednesday night, Obama described the budget maneuvering as “grandstanding.”
“What the president has is a frustration with petty politics,” said a Democratic strategist with close ties to the White House. “He deplores the kind of school yard food fight. He doesn’t relish it, and he would like to get past this.”
Boehner, a classic backroom pol, is viewed as reasonable by many Democrats. The White House decided weeks ago to pursue a strategy of engagement with him, rather than confrontation.
Senior administration officials, from legislative director Rob Nabors to chief of staff William Daley to budget director Jack Lew, have spent hours on the phone and in-person trying to break the deadlock. The White House is now invested in an approach that progressives view as appeasement. They wanted Obama to tear apart the GOP budget, line-by-line, and delineate the differences between the parties.
There’s no question that Boehner’s in a tight spot, too.
He has indicated publicly that he doesn’t want a shutdown and privately that he thinks Democrats would win politically if that happens. But the most conservative faction in his caucus is a bit unpredictable — and some, like Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.), would rather “shut it down” than cede much ground in terms of dollars or social policy
Boehner’s strength as a negotiator is that Democrats believe he’s bound by his caucus, and his caucus — for the most part — believes he’s doing his best to get the most he can out of the White House and Senate Democrats.
While he’s been accused of agreeing to, and then backing away from a $33 billion cut, the Ohio Republican has a long legislative record of resolving thorny issues, including President George W. Bush’s education plan and a major rewrite of pension laws.
Continue ReadingBoehner now faces a different set of challenges in tough negotiations than he did as a committee chairman. His role is different, the caucus is more ideological and the stakes are higher.
As chairman, he could simply walk away from the table and wait for a more favorable time to move a bill through committee. Now, he’s in charge — at least in part — of keeping the government running.
He also has tighter constraints in entering talks and in signing off on an agreement. If things fall apart on either end, he bears a greater share of the blame.
He’s seen both sides. While he shepherded education and pension measures into law, he couldn’t sell TARP to his GOP colleagues even as he openly begged for their support on the floor.
But even within that construct, those who have been in the trenches with him say he’s an expert legislator — and one worthy of the trust of his counterparts.
“He tends to be hands-on. He knows his subject matter. He does leave the details, very often, to staff,” said a Democratic source who has been involved in talks with him in the past. “He sets out broadly what he thinks is acceptable to him … He tells you what he thinks he can agree to and he wants to know what you think you can agree to.”
The source said Boehner is “at heart” pragmatic. “He wants to get a result, and he negotiates in good faith.”
Republican lawmakers and aides say Boehner’s done a good job of holding the line so far — and, as the White House likes to point out, the bottom line is up more than half the amount House Republicans originally sought.
“I think he has particularly done a really good job of setting the tone of trying to reach a reasonable conclusion,” said Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), a onetime leadership rival of Boehner’s when he was in the House. “John’s a patient and effective negotiator.”
Finally, there is Reid. When asked if the soft-spoken but scrappy Democratic leader was negotiating in good faith, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers, who has worked across the table from Reid during years of spending discussions, answered, without hesitation: “I think so.”
And Republicans make no secret they prefer to deal with him than Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democrats’ message maven. They say Schumer’s spoiling for a shutdown and point to his frequent accusations that they are doing the same as proof of his obsession with the potential political benefit of blaming the GOP.
Democrats say Schumer is simply framing the debate, a role that Reid can’t play while trying to negotiate a deal.
Reid has tried to avoid direct attacks on the man he’s trying to cut a deal with – Boehner – and instead is pinning the blame for the impasse directly on tea party activists.
At the same time, Reid faces pressure from his left flank, with liberals like Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont saying they aren’t comfortable with what Democrats have already conceded.
“Harry is in a box,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “And one thing about Harry, he can pull a rabbit out of a hat.”
John Bresnahan and Manu Raju contributed to this story.
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