Ivory Coast: Laurent Gbagbo standoff - live updates
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Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo is in a bunker in his presidential palace in Abidjan Photograph: Sia Kambou/AFP/Getty Images
Here is an evening summary.
• Laurent Gbagbo, the incumbent president, remains in a bunker at the presidential residence with his family. He is being defended by militias who have withstood sustained attacks by forces loyal to Alassane Ouattara. Ouattara supporters say Gbagbo loyalists have heavy weapons, making it difficult for the attackers, who have been ordered to take Gbagbo alive.• The assault came after Gbagbo denied - contrary to claims by the UN and the French - that he was negotiating his surrender. He offered to hold talks with Ouattara but insisted he won the election despite Ouatarra being widely recognised as the victor in last year's poll. Gbagbo also said he has no intention of becoming a martyr.
• African Union officials say South Africa, Togo and Angola are possible safe havens for Gbagbo should he negotiate an exit.
• Stephen O'Brien, the UK international development minister, has warned of an immediate humanitarian crisis and has urged all all countries to join the relief effort by sharing the financial burden. O'Brien says the crisis could escalate as the refugees are unlikely to return home until a genuine peace is secured.
Stephen O'Brien, the UK international development minister, has just been on the line from Liberia, where he's been visiting the the Bahn camp on the border with Ivory Coast. Overseen by UNHCR, the camp was set up about eight weeks ago in a heavily forested area and has some 3,000 men, women and children.
Many people came here by foot fleeing for their lives, at first women and children then joined by men deeply fearful of the violence. When they got to the border, they were welcomed generously by the Liberians, received with open arms and given food and water before being moved to transit camps. About 150 people a day are arriving at the Bahn camp, where British aid is being put to good use. There is access to water in barrels and some wells will be drilled soon and schooling is going on. The challenge is that we will need a further response as more people arrive. The last thing we want is for this to be forgotten as people will continue to come for a while. There is still a huge fear factor and a fear of retribution. This is not a short-term problem. The rainy season is due any time, which will make life even more difficult.
Kim Willsher in Paris has more on the French role in Ivory Coast, where French and UN troops destroyed Gbagbo's heavy weapons, although they have not taken part in the attack on Gbagbo's residence.
The French intervention in the Ivory Coast has been heavily criticised in another of France's former colonies, Cameroon. Taxi drivers in the capital Douala have been holding demonstrations against French military action and a group of influential critics andIn Germany, the left-leaning Berliner Zeitung paper said France "the former colonial power which still feels the pain of the loss of Ivory Coast, could not resist taking part in the neocolonial power play."
thinkers set up a petition against what they called "world imperialism" being played out in Ivory Coast. The petition accused Nicolas Sarkozy and the international community of "hatching a tragedy".
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In a report last week, Human Rights Watch said the vast majority of abuses it documented over a four-month period, in which 500 people died, were committed by pro-Gbagbo forces. The abuses included targeted killings, enforced disappearances, politically motivated rapes, and unlawful use of lethal force against unarmed demonstrators. But HRW says it has also documented extrajudicial executions by Ouattara's forces against alleged pro-Gbagbo supporters and combatants.
Channel 4 News has spoken to the UN assistant secretary-general for human rights, Ivan Simonovic, who has just returned from Duekoue to oversee the investigation into reports of mass killings. This is what he had to say:
Here are the hard facts: in the first incident the 100 victims were of a single ethnicity, from the Dioula ethnicity who traditionally support Ouattara, they were found after pro-Gbagbo forces were in control. And in the second incident 230 people from the Guerra ethnicity, traditionally supporters of Gbagbo, were killed at the time when Ouattara's forces were in control.
Irin, the UN news agency, has a good piece providing lots of details on the rebels backing Ouattara.
At a recent celebratory rally in the political capital Yamoussoukro, Ouattara's prime minister Guillaume Soro introduced the crowd to several FN (Forces Nouvelles) senior commanders: Soumaila Bakayoko, Cherif Ousmane, Tuo Fozié and Touré Hervé, saluted as being among the architects of the FRCI's victories. Ouattara supporters also talk of the key role played by Col Miche Gueu. These men are associated with the September 2002 rebellion, which nearly dislodged Gbagbo. The FN - a collective of three rebel factions - made offensives against Korhogo, Bouaké and Abidjan. Their secretary-general and main public voice was a then 30-year-old Soro, known primarily as a former student leader.
Stephen O'Brien, a UK international development minister who has been at the Bahn camp in Liberia, on the border with Ivory Coast, has warned of an "immediate crisis" and has called on all the international community to help people affected by the violence.
The Department for International Development last week said it would provide £16m in emergency aid to Ivory Coast and Liberia. Part of the aid is going towards providing food for 25,000 displaced men, women and children for six months in Ivory Coast, tents and treatment for malnutrition.
This is Mark Tran taking over from Haroon. Mamadou Toure, a Ouattara supporter who has been on France 24 TV, says it's taking so long to capture Gbagbo's bunker because Gbagbo's supporters have heavy weapons. Outtara's forces reportedly have received orders to take the incumbent president alive.
There are fears of multiple casualties as heavy weapons are being used in the fighting presidential compound, reports our correspondent in Abijan Selay Koussi.
Minutes after the attack start I saw some UN white helicopters flying over the presidential residence where the fighting rages. The helicopters were not firing rockets as Gbagbo's people pretend._
Gunfire has just stopped now, but 10 to 15 minutes I could hear heavy weaponry.
It is taking so long to get Mr Gbagbo out of the bunker because he still has some heavy weapons. This is why the fighting is dragging on.
It is quite difficult to have official numbers (of casualties). But the heavy weaponry that is being used could make many many injured people.
The office of the international criminal court's prosecutor (OTP) says it is "very concerned about the deteriorating situation in Ivory Coast including recent information about alleged mass killings in the western part of the country. The office continues to collect information on alleged crimes committed there by different parties to the conflict."
The OTP said the prosecutor has been conducting a preliminary examination and the next step will be for the prosecutor to request authorisation to initiate an investigation but the process would be expedited if a country signed up to the Rome statute refers Ivory Coast to the prosecutor of the international criminal court. Selay Kouassi has sent us an update from Abidjan where he says UN helicopters are flying over the presidential residence where fighting continues to rage. He says Nadia Okou, a pharmacy student living in Plateau, in the neighbourhood of the palace, told him:
Gbagbo people saying there is a secret plan led by France to kill their leader is mere propaganda, I think. From my flat, I can see the UN's white helicopters in the sky, but they are not firing rockets at the palace as Gbagbo people said and down in the streets of Plateau there are armoured pick-up driven by FRCI [Ouattara's] soldiers.Selay says another Plateau resident confirmed the account given by Okou.
All of David Smith's answers to your questions are collected this document. His answers are organised into eight themes: what happens if Ouattara takes over; the Forces Nouvelles; human rights; Gbagbo's fate; Ble Goude, the youth minister; the future of pro-Gbagbo forces; religion; and the humanitarian situation.
Update: We've changed the previous link to a new Scribd document. The previous link didn't work, apologies. A press release supporting Gbagbo has been sent to the Guardian from a group calling itself the Ivorian Community in the UK. The group says it is holding a sit-in at the Russian embassy in London between 11am and 3pm tomorrow. It has chosen Russia because it is the current president of the UN security council. Its says its aims are to:
• Show our full support to the Ivorian institutions laid by President Laurent Gbagbo as proclaimed by the constitutional counsel.• Demand the sovereignty of the Ivory Coast to be respected.
• Protest against the killing of hundreds of civilians by the UN and the French army on Monday 04.04.11.
• Protest against the double standard and the lies and the rumours spread by the international media in presenting the Ivorian crisis.
• Demand all the non-conformist of the international community to show more support and help investigate the legality of the French-UN action in Cote d'Ivoire.
• Demand all the human right organisations help bring to justice all the perpetrators of mass killing in the western part of the country.
Negotiations with Gbabgo led by the UN and France have failed, the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe, Reuters reports. Juppe told parliament:
The negotiations which were carried out for hours yesterday between the entourage of Laurent Gbagbo and Ivorian authorities have failed because of Gbagbo's intransigence.Juppe's comments explain what prompted troops loyal to Ouattara's to lose patience with Gbagbo and to move into the presidential palace to try to remove the incumbent president by force from the bunker where he is holed up.
David Smith has been taking questions in the comments below. Let's highlight his answer to a question on the rebels.
It's worth remembering these rebels are very different from those in Libya - they have ranks, uniforms, weapons and air conditioned offices, and have effectively been controlling the northern half of the country for years. There are already signs of dissent and division among them; there's nothing like a common foe to concentrate the mind and instill unity, but that might not last long if and when Ouattara takes charge. He may well struggle to hold the country together; Gbagbo did get 46% of the vote. Some say the only solution is a consensus figure who promises not to stand at the next election, but I've not heard any viable names mentioned.
Soldiers loyal to Alassane Ouattara prepare to deploy at a checkpoint at one of the principal entrances to Abidjan, Ivory Coast Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP _
The latest round-up from Reuters describes heavy fighting near Gbagbo's residence as militias loyal to the defeated president put up strong resistance.
"The fighting is terrible here, the explosions are so heavy my building is shaking," Alfred Kouassi, who lives near Gbagbo's residence in the commercial capital Abidjan, told Reuters.
"We can hear automatic gunfire and also the thud of heavy weapons. There's shooting all over the place. Cars are speeding in all directions and so are the fighters," he said.
A spokeswoman for Ouattara's forces said Ouattara's fighters were storming Gbagbo's residence, where Gbagbo has been holed up since Ouattara's forces swept into Abidjan backed by helicopter strikes by the United Nations and France.
"They are in the process of entering the residence to seize Gbagbo," Affousy Bamba told Reuters. "They have not taken him yet, but they are in the process."
Residents however said militias close to Gbagbo and his presidential guard were putting up a stiff resistance, even as most soldiers from the regular army had heeded a call to lay down their arms.
The New York Times carries this interesting piece analysing the UN's decision to intervene in Ivory Coast, which lies in what can be termed a doctrine of "responsibility to protect". The same can be said to apply to Libya.
The emerging consensus to take action to prevent violence against civilians should be viewed against the backdrop of a resolution adopted in 2005 to help the United Nations intervene to stop genocide. The resolution held nations responsible for shielding citizens from atrocities and established the right of international forces to step in if nations did not fulfill this "responsibility to protect."
Fatou Keïta, a novelist, well describes the atmosphere of apprehension and fear in his apartment building as the fighting reaches Abidjan.
In that hallway, we are afraid; there are suddenly too many windows and we try to get as far away from them as possible. Still, we manage to laugh at how we contort our bodies to protect ourselves. My son says that he would never have imagined that one day he would have to slither on the floor like a snake. We laugh — have we become insane?
Tuesday morning, the uneasy calm is interrupted by sporadic gunfire. They say that the presidential palace is under siege; they say that soldiers are looking for Mr. Gbagbo; they say that he's ready to surrender ... they say ... they say. My computer continues to feed me lies and contradictions. I am waiting for the end. I am waiting for deliverance.
Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters Our correspondent in Paris, Kim Willsher, has analysed the significance of the intervention by France - and Nicolas Sarkozy - in the Ivory Coast conflict:
French president Nicolas Sarkozy is a man who likes taking risks and he is certainly taking a big one in the Ivory Coast, where French interference is swiftly jumped on as evidence that Paris is still flexing colonial muscles.
This is after all the man who shortly after taking office in 2007 managed to offend the entire continent in a speech riddled with stereotypes and prejudices.
"The tragedy of Africa is that the African has not fully entered into history," he said at a speech in, of all places Dakar, adding that Africans had "missed out on progress".
It is unfortunate for France to be seen as an aggressor in a former African colony.
Yet here France is, wading in, without any apparent concern about what message this sends to African - particularly Francophone African - nations.
Here's a summary of events so far today as Gbago's grip on power appears to be slipping away:
• Forces loyal to Ouattara have stormed the presidential palace in a bid to capture Gbagbo, who remains entrenched in his bunker at the residence with members of his family and a handful of supporters. Heavy gunfire has been heard in Abidjan. An Ouattara spokeswoman has claimed the incumbent president, who has refused to acknowledge the results of last year's election, will be captured within a couple of hours. Representatives of Ouattara insist he will be taken unharmed.• The assault came after Gbagbo denied - contrary to claims by the UN and the French - that he was negotiating his surrender. He offered to hold talks with Ouattara but Gbagbo insisted he won the election despite Ouatarra being widely recognised as the victor in last year's poll. Gbagbo also said he has no intention of becoming a martyr.
• French forces have been firing at the presidential palace and could kill Gbabgo, a Gbagbo spokesman has claimed. But the French government and military have denied the claims and the Guardian's stringer Selay Koussi said foreign forces are not involved in the assault.
The sooner the conflict is resolved the sooner more resources can be channelled towards the humanitarian crisis in the country. Save the Children has released harrowing transcripts of interviews with children and their parents fleeing the violence in Abidjan.
A 11-year-old child said: Another 11-year-old who fled to Bouake said:
We heard gunfire, Kalashnikovs, canons, all that. It makes me afraid. It makes me feel sad to see all people flee people displaced by the war all that it makes me sad... They were shooting all the time, morning, midday, evening...We will live with this. It hurts me. Here we eat but we are not full, we eat little.
I would like Abidjan to calm down so that we can return home. I want to go back to school... We need peace in the country. We need a good president too...I want us to go back to Abidjan that is all. I would like to tell them to stop the killing, stop the war in a country. Because a war destroys everything.
"I went to the market with my aunt. I saw a man; he took a gun and shot another man.One mother said:
We were just about to leave.... The man was dressed in rugged clothes. They started shooting at this market place. We started running away to go home... I was scared that they would shoot me too. That's why I started running with my aunty.
I came with my big sister and my little brother...and my little sisters came with us too.
It was in February but I can't remember what day exactly."
"Two days we have water, two days we do not have water. She has diarrhoea and all that. We do not have enough water. There is nothing, we have a problem. We need help."Rae McGrath, emergency response manager on the Ivory Coast-Liberia border, gave this Audioboo update on the refugee crisis:
"Save the Children is responding to a massive influx of conflict driven refugees. When we see refugees when they first arrived we see children who can be very frightened and typically they will have walked for long periods in very difficult circumstances."
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Our Africa correspondent David Smith, who will be answering your questions in the comments section at 1pm, has provided some analysis of the options open to Gbagbo as the net closes around him:
The deputy leader of Ivory Coast's rebel forces told me last month that they have no intention of killing him, but rather want him to stand trial at the International Criminal Court, following the example of former president Charles Taylor in neighbouring Liberia. There is growing demand for this in the wake of some hideous human rights abuses over the past four months.David says talk of Gbagbo, a former history professor, being given amnesty and taking up a teaching position in the United States is long gone:
But he could still go into exile, possibly across the border in Ghana, which was one of the countries that put the brakes on a mooted west African military intervention. Other candidates are Angola, where president Jose Eduardo dos Santos is an old ally, or Zimbabwe, where president Robert Mugabe always welcomes any opportunity to goad the west. Zimbabwe already provides refuge to former Ethiopian dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam, wanted for the notorious 'Red Terror' campaign.
Then there is South Africa, lately a bolthole for both former Madagascan president Marc Ravalomanana and exiled Haitian leader Jean-Bertrand Aristide, who returned to his homeland last month. It's already being joked that Aristide's luxury villa in Pretoria is now
empty and available for Gbagbo to move in. South Africa angered Gbagbo's rival, Alassane Ouattara, by refusing to take sides over last year's election, although it has subsequently come on board with the rest of the African Union in endorsing Ouattara. Nevertheless, by
giving Gbagbo some breathing space, South Africa could fend off internal critics who say it has become subservient to the west, not least over Libya.
But all the noises coming out of Gbagbo's bunker today seem to echo Churchill's "in defeat, defiance" - with a result that could resemble Hitler's fate in 1945.
Gbagbo will be captured within the next couple of hours, according to a spokeswoman for Ouattara. Speaking to CNN she said:
She confirmed that a gun battle is taking place within the residence and added that only Republican forces, allayed to Ouattara, are involved in the fighting, not UN or French troops.
The Republican forces of Cote d'Ivoire are in Laurent Gbagbo's house. I think within one hour they will capture Gbagbo. Within one hour or two hours.
Ibrahim Coulibaly, a spokesman for the Ivory Coast embassy in France, just told al-Jazeera English Gbabgo is "still in his bunker". He said:
Gbabgo is still denying the result of the election, so today we decided to go and get him out of his bunker.Coulibaly said they had no intention of harming Gbagbo but had no other choice than to use force to get him out of his bunker.
"That's the only means now, we didn't have any choice. We have been trying to negotiate with him."Coulibaly denied that any French forces are involved in the assault.
Affoussy Bamba, spokeswoman for the government of the president elect, Ouattara, has told France-24 that Gbagbo will be captured "soon". She said:
At the current moment they have not yet captured Gbagbo but it will happen soon. They opened the gates and noted that the residence is surrounded by heavy weaponry. Now the objective is to capture him.Members of Ouattara's forces are reportedly under strict instructions from the president-elect's government to take Gbago unharmed.
Forces loyal to Ouattara are attacking Gbagbo's palace and are planning to take him from his bunker but the incumbent president still has some security protecting him, Selay Kouassi reports in a Skype interview from Abidjan.
From my home I can hear gunfire. Ouattara forces are firing at the bunker. They said they are going to catch Mr Gbagbo in his house. Gbagbo is not showing any sign of resigning. Maybe only by this way will he surrender. He is being protected by a handful of faithful militiamen and security guards._
We hope for a happy ending otherwise it is going to be very tough.
There is a "real danger" that Gbabgo, his wife and other family members could be killed in the assault on the presidential palace, his European representative Toussaint Alain has told AP.
Alain claimed French forces are firing from two Puma helicopters and also from the rooftop of the French ambassador's residence nearby. He said:France will be held responsible for the death of President Gbagbo, his wife and family members and all those who are inside the residence, which is being bombarded by the French army.
French Military Spokesman Thierry Burkhard denied that French forces are firing at the residence.
Residents around the presidential palace in Abidjan's Cocody neighbourhood say they have heard heavy gunfire and loud explosions coming from the direction of the palace, Reuters reports. Alfred Kouassi, who lives near Gbagbo's residence in Cocody, told the news agency:
I have seen from my building the FRCI fighters (Ouattara forces) in pick-ups and 4x4 jeeps rushing towards Gbagbo's residence, weapons in their hands. We can hear automatic gunfire and also the thuds of heavy weapons coming from the residence.
A Gbagbo representative claims French forces are firing on the embattled Ivorian leader's residence, AP reports.
A French government spokesman has told Reuters its forces are not participating in on-the-ground fighting around the presidential residence palace.
The BBC's Andrew Harding tweets:
I can hear heavy bombardment in Abidjan. Has Gbagbo been haggling too long in his bunker? Country badly needs calm ending to this.
Fabrice Zagbayou, a Gbagbo supporter and business analyst from Abidjan, says he fears for his life in the current assault.
Zagbayou, an active Twitter user in the city, told the Guardian: Laurent Gbagbo won the election. We don't need bombing, we don't need another leader. The French army bombed civilians, the French army bombed the president. This is not democracy. It is not acceptable.Sounding close to tears he added:
"The French army say they want to secure Abidjan. It is wrong. It is wrong. We think they are going to kill Laurent Gbagbo. Ouattara militia and French troops are shooting now. I'm afraid for my life. I'm afraid that if the Ouattara militia find me they will kill me."A French government spokesman has said French forces are not participating in on-the-ground fighting around the presidential residence, according to Reuters.
Forces loyal to Ouattara have stormed the palace where Gbagbo is sheltering in a bunker, a spokeswoman for the forces told Reuters. Affousy Bamba said:
Yes they (Ouattara forces) are in the process of entering the residence to seize Gbagbo, they have not taken him yet, but they are in the process, they are in the building.His answer on what happens next is most pertinent:
By holding out for so long, Gbagbo has lost any right to negotiate the terms of his exit. In an ideal scenario, he should prepare for a trip to the International Criminal Court, whose prosecutors have been closely monitoring events in Côte d'Ivoire. It remains to be seen whether another African country might help him escape this fate by offering him a quiet exile.
President Ouattara faces the formidable challenge of healing a deeply divided country in which a sizeable minority openly questions his right to govern. Having been denied his right to win control of the country through the ballot box, he has ultimately claimed it by force. The heavy fighting of the past few days has led to excesses by both sides in the conflict. The FRCI has been accused by the International Committee of the Red Cross of being involved in a massacre in the town of Duékoué, although Ouattara strongly denies this claim. In addition, the incoming president will inevitably face the politically damaging claim that he was propelled to power by the French, Côte d'Ivoire's former colonial masters. A
All of these factors dent Ouattara's credibility. For these reasons, his main priority on taking office will be to promote national reconciliation. Ouattara will need to act with restraint toward those who opposed him and would be advised to reach out to his erstwhile enemies by including some of the more moderate Gbagbo loyalists in his government. There remains cause for hope despite the challenges. Ivoirian political leaders have shown an impressive capacity to patch up their differences in the past; those skills will be needed again in the coming weeks and months.
The Guardian's stringer, Selay Kouassi, says gunfire has restarted in Abidjan after the FRCI, the pro-Outtara forces, announced that they are going to "take Gbagbo out of his bunker where he is hiding".
They are heading to the presidential palace. It appears that they have lost patience with attempts to negotiate Gbagbo's surrender.
The Guardian's Africa correspondent David Smith will be taking part in a Q&A in the comments section below at 1pm.
- You may be interested in finding out more about the two sides of the conflict, tribal allegiances, their culpability for war crimes.- Or you may be interested in the international aspects of the conflict, the role of the UN and/or France and the scope the crisis has to affect other countries in the region.
- Alternatively, you may have concerns about the humanitarian cost of the crisis.
Simply post your question in the comments section and David will try to respond.
Gbagbo is resisting pressure from the United Nations and France to sign a document renouncing his claim to power, in another setback to hopes that he will leave office imminently, Reuters reports.
From his bunker where he is surrounded by troops loyal to Ouattara, Gbagbo told French Radio RFI today:We are not at the negotiating stage. And my departure from where? to go where?But Gbagbo government spokesman Ahoua Don Mello, who was taking part in negotiations, told Reuters the parties are still in talks. He said:
"Some points are still being discussed. Nothing has been signed, Gbagbo has not signed anything."
There is heavy gunfire near Gbagbo's residence, France 24 is reporting, citing witnesses. No further details have been given.
Gbagbo's refusal to surrender is prompting fears of more violence in Abidjan, our stringer in the city, Selay Koussi, reports. (There is brief echo on the line at first but it gets better).
The place is quiet, but it is not safe because you some have militia men who are still faithful Mr Gbagbo who ransacking shops and supermarkets._
Many many families are running out of basic foodstuffs and water.
Many many people think that the UN and French forces again might restart the bombing to put pressure on him [Gbagbo] to relinquish power. Many people were disappointment that he said he was not going to recognise Mr Ouattara as the victor of the election. I'm afraid that if French troops and UN forces use helicopters and start firing rockets at the bunker of Mr Gbagbo the violence will raise again. People are very angry throughout Abidjan. They think that Mr Gbagbo is playing a nasty game with the international community. They think he is trying to get time to escape.
This day is very crucial. If nothing is done in the next 24 hours the population might go on to the streets because they are running out of basic foodstuffs and water. This might bring the country on the verge of both chaos and collapse.
The Guardian has a story up about Gbagbo's denial that he is preparing to surrender. He told French news channel LCI:
I won the election and I'm not negotiating my departure. I find it absolutely incredible that the entire world is playing this ... game of poker.
He also insisted he had no intention of being a martyr:
"I'm not a kamikaze. I love life. My voice is not the voice of a martyr, no, no, no, I'm not looking for death. It's not my aim to die."-
With most people assuming Gbabgo's surrender is only a matter of time, attention is turning to what will happen after his departure. On Comment is Free, Adekeye Adebajo, director of the Centre for Conflict, writes that both sides have a case to answer:
Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities. Gbagbo and Ouattara must thus be put on notice that they will be held accountable for war crimes committed by their fighters. The financial and travel sanctions recently imposed by the UN on Gbagbo, his Lady Macbethian wife Simone, and other associates, should also be extended to other peace "spoilers".
French troops must do more than just protect the airport in order to evacuate western nationals in yet another example of an "aristocracy of death", in which the lives of foreigners are deemed to be worth more than those of Africans. In addition, genuine suspicions persist about the stance adopted by pro-Ouattara France, whose previous self-interested interventions in Africa, and continuing support for local autocrats, cast the Gallic power in the role of a fox guarding a hen-house.
Adebajo also says other African countries have an important part to play in post-Gbagbo reconciliation:
Nigeria and South Africa must use their presence on the UN security council effectively to help craft a peaceful outcome. The African Union should help to negotiate a safe exit for Gbagbo and press Ouattara to bring in his rival's supporters into any future government. Nigeria, South Africa and Angola must speak with one voice to ensure that any agreement sticks.
France's armed forces chief Edouard Guillaud has told Europe 1 radio that Gbagbo is negotiating his surrender - the president has denied he is doing so - and could quit office in "a matter of hours". He said:
They (negotiations) continued through the night but unfortunately I see no breakthrough for now. Despite that, I believe it is a matter of hours, possibly during the day.Guillard also said strikes against Gbagbo's camp could resume at the request of the United Nations and if he continued to refuse to step down.
Earlier, the French foreign minister, Alain Juppe told France Info radio the only thing left to discuss with Gbagbo was his departure. Juppe said:
"This obstinacy is absurd. Gbagbo has no future henceforth. Everybody's dropped him. He's holed up in his residence. With the United Nations, which is at the helm, we are going to continue to exert pressure on him to face up to reality."
As the standoff at the presidential palace continues, the pro-Ouattara television station TCI has been putting pressure on Gbagbo/mocking the incumbent president by playing extracts from Downfall, the film about Adolf Hitler's final days in his bunker in Berlin.
How long will it be before someone creates a Gbagbo-inspired parody of the famous scene where Hitler launches into a furious tirade upon finally realizing that the war is truly lost? Good morning. Welcome to live coverage of events in the Ivory Coast. Here's a summary of the latest developments:
• President Laurent Gbago remains holed up in a bunker with his family and a handful of supporters at his palace in Abidjan. Forces loyal to his rival, Alassane Ouattara, surrounded his home on Tuesday after UN helicopters attacked Gbagbo's arms stockpiles and bases.• Gbago's spokesman, the UN and the French have all said that the incumbent president is negotiating his surrender. However, in a telephone interview with French news channel LCI, the incumbent president insisted "no decision has yet been taken".
• A ceasefire declared by Gbagbo's generals in Abidjan yesterday appears to be holding, although the UN says there has been "sporadic shooting" by gangs of youths not allied to either the incumbent president or his rival.
• There are fears of a humanitarian crisis with people confined to their houses by the fighting. Food, medical supplies and water are all in short supply in Abidjan. Many people are also without electricity. There have also been armed, xenophobic attacks against west African nationals and Malian migrants, with guns and knives.
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