Economic events for the week of April 11-15
This week should offer a deeper sense of how the economy was doing in March.
Monday
The vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, is scheduled to deliver what should be a consequential speech. One of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s closest allies, Yellen is speaking to the Economic Club of New York on “Commodity Prices, the Economic Outlook, and Monetary Policy.” Her comments should offer a good sense of how Fed leadership is thinking about the economy and the path of policy in the months ahead, at least until Bernanke gives his first news conference April 27. Yellen also plans to take questions from the audience.
Tuesday
Analysts expect international trade data to show a narrowing of the trade deficit in February, to $44.3 billion from $46.3 billion. A smaller deficit would add to growth prospects for the first quarter.
Wednesday
Retail sales are forecast to have risen a steady 0.5 percent in March, or 0.4 percent when excluding the volatile industries of automobiles and gasoline. Numbers in that ballpark would suggest that while American consumers aren’t dramatically increasing their purchases, a steady improvement continues.
Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve is slated to release its “beige book,” a compilation of anecdotal reports from businesses around the country. The document, which is used to help inform Fed leaders at their upcoming policy meeting, will likely show continued steady economic improvement even as businesses are being pinched by higher fuel prices.
Thursday
Wholesale prices rose 1.1 percent in March, analysts expect data to show, driven almost entirely by higher food and energy prices. The producer price index is forecast to have risen 0.2 percent.
Friday
Only a portion of those higher wholesale prices is expected to have rippled through to consumer prices. The consumer price index is forecast to have risen 0.5 percent, or 0.2 percent excluding food and energy.
Industrial production is forecast to have risen 0.5 percent in March, after dropping slightly in February.
— Neil Irwin
