Box office preview: 'Rio' and 'Scream 4' look to revive a struggling Hollywood

by John Young

Categories: Animation, Box Office, Horror Movies, Movie Biz

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This year’s box office is trailing 2010 by an alarming 22 percent so far. In fact, Hollywood hasn’t gotten off to this dismal of a start since 2006. But here to the rescue is the one-two punch ofRio and Scream 4, which should deliver a much-needed jolt to the box office. Plus, since the two films are aiming for strikingly different demographics, they shouldn’t limit each other’s potential. But we must pick a winner, and for this weekend, I’m going with the Brazil-set animated adventure Rio, which should glide past Rango‘s $38.1 million debut to score the year’s best opening weekend. Here are my predictions for the top five:

1. Rio: $45 million

This 3-D animated musical, starring Jesse Eisenberg and Anne Hathaway as two (extremely endangered) macaws, comes from Fox’s Blue Sky Studios, which has produced the successful Ice Age films and Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who! The three Ice Age movies opened to $46.3 million, $68 million, and $41.7 million, respectively, while Horton grabbed $45 million its initial weekend. Horton‘s debut seems within reach. While Rio features an original story, and therefore can’t rely on any built-in awareness for Dr. Seuss or the Ice Agename, Fox has smartly positioned the movie around the time when many schools begin spring break. Furthermore, the $90 million film is receiving mostly positive reviews and, unlikeHorton, will benefit from those 3-D surcharges. And while some parents might have worried about taking their youngest children to the PG-rated Rango or Hop, the G rating for Rio won’t raise the same concerns.

2. Scream 4: $38 million

It’s been 11 long years since we last saw Ghostface, and the big question now is: Have audiences moved on? I think not. The whole gang is back (Neve Campbell, Courteney Cox, David Arquette, director Wes Craven, and writer Kevin Williamson), and even though theScream movies aren’t that old, a lot of moviegoers in their 30s (or late 20s) look back at the series with a sense of late ’90s nostalgia. The first Scream opened to only $6.4 million, but it ultimately wound up grossing a series-best $103 million. Scream 2 and Scream 3, on the other hand, debuted to $32.9 million and $34.7 million. Add in inflation, and just under $40 million seems about right for the R-rated Scream 4.

3. Hop: $11 million

After topping two back-to-back weekends, Hop now has to deal with the tropical birds of Rio. Translation: a fall of about 50 percent.

4. Hanna: $8 million

This PG-13 thriller snuck into second place last week thanks to a better-than-expected Sunday result. Since Rio and Scream 4 shouldn’t steal much of Hanna‘s action-seeking audience, expect a mild decline of around 35 percent.

5. Soul Surfer: $7 million

Fifth place could go the comedy remake Arthur or this surfing biopic, but I’m giving the edge to the latter, in part because it’s this year’s first movie to earn an overall “A+” from CinemaScore moviegoers. I imagine that most of those interested in seeing Arthur already did so last week, whereas Soul Surfer, thanks to its likely positive word-of-mouth, will continue to attract new audiences. Like Hanna, look for a drop of 35 percent.

Also being released this weekend, in 707 theaters, is Robert Redford’s historical drama The Conspirator, about the trial of charged co-conspirator Mary Surratt (Robin Wright) after the assassination of President Lincoln. The PG-13 film also stars James McAvoy, Evan Rachel Wood, Kevin Kline, and Tom Wilkinson.